The regular season is over, but the Nats still have a few days and a wild card play-in game determining their opponent before they finally get to start on their quest to redeem 2012’s NLDS collapse. While we wait, I thought it might be fun to compare and contrast the likely 2014 playoff roster with that of the 2012 squad to try and determine which one is truly better.
While it is true that the 2012 squad won more regular season games, this year’s bunch seized the NL East crown much more authoritatively and is riding into the postseason on a much higher note thanks to Jordan Zimmermann’s heroics. One might also be inclined to argue that this year’s bunch has the advantage of being more experienced–to which I would argue that sometimes that’s an advantage and sometimes it isn’t.
As this is a fairly long exercise, I’m going to split it into two parts, pitchers today and position players tomorrow. I’ll compare each aspect of the team (treating each starting pitcher slot as one position) and assign one of three values: even, slight advantage, significant advantage. Even will = 0 points, while slight advantage will = 1 point and significant advantage will = 2 points. Then we’ll add ’em all up at the end and see what we’ve got. One caveat, I will NOT be including the actual 2012 playoff performances for each player on that roster in my analysis (as that would be cheating), just what the expectations were for them going in.
So here goes:
No. 1 Starter: Gio Gonzalez 2012 vs Stephen Strasburg 2014
Much like the Doug Fister trade this year, the trade for Gio Gonzalez was the most important move that contributed to the Nats’ 2012 playoff run. Gio became the Nats’ first (and so far only) 20 game winner that year and their first pitcher to record more than 200 Ks in one season (207) while finishing 2nd in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.
Meanwhile, after having some ups and downs, in 2014 Strasburg assumed his rightful place late in the season as the ace of the Nats’ staff and its workhorse, throwing 215 innings and recording an NL leading 243 Ks. His modest 14-11 won-loss record was reflective of his inconsistency early on, but in his last 6 starts he sparkled, putting up a Walter Johnson-esque ERA of 1.13 and looking like the true ace the Nats have been waiting for ever since he blew out his elbow four years ago. Still, based on the totality of their respective seasons, Gio 2012 gets the nod here.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, Gio Gonzalez 2012
No. 2 Starter: Jordan Zimmermann 2012 vs Jordan Zimmermann 2014
In the battle of Z-nn vs Z-nn, let’s go to the numbers. In 2012, JZ was 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA, and had 143 Ks against 43 BBs. In 2014, he was 14-5 with a 2.66 ERA, and 182 Ks vs only 29 BBs. What those numbers show is a remarkably consistent pitcher who has continued to improve as he’s gained experience. Oh, and then there was that no-no performance in his last game of the season.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, Jordan Zimmermann 2014
No. 3 Starter: Edwin Jackson 2012 vs. Doug Fister 2014
Oh please, how much convincing do you need on this one? I’ll make it really simple. Jackson: 10-11, 4.03. Fister: 16-6, 2.41. Enough said.
Verdict: Significant Advantage, Doug Fister 2014
No. 4 Starter: Ross Detwiler 2012 vs Gio Gonzalez 2014
This one is not as cut-and-dried as it seems as Detwiler actually had a better won-loss record (10-8 vs 10-10) and ERA (3.40 vs 3.57). The peripheral numbers, however, favor Gonzalez, especially strikeout rate (9.2 K/9 rate vs 5.8). The 2012 season turned out to be the one (and likely only) good season Ross Detwiler had in a Nats’ uniform, but even then he still wasn’t good enough to hold off being moved to the bullpen for awhile in favor of Chien-Ming Wang.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, Gio Gonzalez 2014
Closer: Drew Storen 2012 vs Drew Storen 2014
Put the NLDS Game 5 disaster out of your mind for a moment and recognize that Drew Storen had a good second half coming off the disabled list in 2012. Though he only won the closer’s job back in September and thus had only 4 saves, he pitched 30.1 innings with an excellent 2.37 ERA and an outstanding 0.989 WHIP.
In 2014, having again only recently regained the closer’s role, Storen’s numbers are even better (1.14 ERA, 0.958 WHIP). He’s also matured as a pitcher since 2012, using secondary offerings more instead of just trying to blow every hitter away.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, Drew Storen 2014
Setup Man: Tyler Clippard 2012 vs Tyler Clippard 2014
Clippard spent much of 2012 as the closer, and the fact that he began to fade down the stretch (and actually had the worst full season of his career) is the reason Storen regained that role. Overall, his 2012 numbers look far worse than this year (3.72 ERA vs 2.21, 1.156 WHIP vs 0.995 and 10.2 K/9 vs 10.5). Bottom line is, Clippard has been a better pitcher this year.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, Tyler Clippard 2014
Middle Relief: Mike Gonzalez, Ryan Mattheus, Sean Burnett & Cristian Garcia 2012 vs Rafael Soriano, Jerry Blevins, Matt Thorton & Aaron Barrett 2014
The late addition of Thorton really shores up what would otherwise be a questionable group for the 2014 Nats as Soriano blew up spectacularly and lost the closer’s job, Blevins sports a staff-high ERA of 4.95 and Barrett was sent to the minors in August to clear his head. On the other hand, the 2012 group was relying on a midseason call-up retread (Gonzalez) and an untested September call-up (Garcia). Mattheus and Burnett had been solid all year, however, which gives the edge to the 2012 squad.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, 2012 group
Long Relief: Craig Stammen & Tom Gorzelanny 2012 vs Craig Stammen & Tanner Roark 2014
These are the guys you hope you don’t have to use, but who will be vital if one of your starters doesn’t have it that night or the game goes to extra innings. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tanner Roark finds himself pitching some high leverage short outings. His presence trumps the fact that Stammen had a much better season in 2012 than he had this year, and had the single worst outing of his career to close out his season.
Verdict: Slight Advantage, Craig Stammen & Tanner Roark 2014
So let’s add it all up:
2012: 2 Slight Advantage + 0 Significant Advantage = 2 points.
2014: 5 Slight Advantage = 1 Significant Advantage = 7 points.
Overall: 2014 Nats over 2012 Nats by 5 points.
Tomorrow we will evaluate the position players and the managers.